The 2022 South African Census is the fourth census since our democracy in 1994. While the results were handed to President Cyril Ramaphosa recently, there will still be a few months until you’ll be able to play with the raw data on the Eighty20 Data Portal (we’ve been told 2024 Q1). We’ve outlined some of the more interesting findings from the StatsSA release.

The purpose of a census is to obtain key data on the demographics of a country such as its size and composition, its number of households and how the members of that household live.  For the government, it provides insight into basic health and access to amenities such as running water and electricity. This guides the distribution of government services, such as education and health departments. It is also used to outline electoral geographies.

❝ The 2022 Census found that the population has been growing at a rapid rate.  While the last mid-year estimate, released in July 2022, put our population at 60.6-million people, the Census found that the population had actually grown to 62-million.

 In the years between each Census, StatsSA releases a mid-year population estimate, but the 2022 Census found that the population has been growing at a rapid rate.  While the last mid-year estimate, released in July 2022, put our population at 60.6-million people, the Census found that the population had actually grown to 62-million. This estimate is up 10.3-million from the last census in 2011, with a growth rate of nearly 1.8% every year for that period – the largest since 1996!

Why is the Census important 

From a market research perspective, the Census provides the sampling frame for all other surveys. The more updated and accurate population size means that the distribution of all the surveys provides a better understanding of our customer segments, whether it be MAPS, Fusion, or BrandMapp. This now needs to be re-based according to the updated population information.

The census is also the basis for a lot of commercial decision making.  The Eighty20 Suburb Profiler and ENS tools at their core are based on the findings of the last Census in 2011.  Any data product or insight on the consumer market in South Africa is linked back to the Census data in some way, either directly, or via updates based on those original findings.

 As this survey is so important to the distribution of government spending and electoral geographies, there will be a debate around the accuracy of the findings.  The time period over which the sample was drawn was one of the most traumatic in our democratic history, with the pilot study postponed due to the second wave of Covid in December 2020, and the fieldwork taking place after the July 2021 riots.  This will have had a huge impact on one of the most topical and highly debated accuracy questions – this is the perennial unknown number of immigrants in South Africa.  

❝ The 2022 Census estimates approximately 2.4 million foreigners in South Africa (3% of the total population)

Foreign Nationals likely understated

The 2022 Census estimates approximately 2.4 million foreigners in South Africa (3% of the total population), but in light of South Africa’s history of xenophobic violence (which during the fieldwork period reared its head as Operation Dudula), this number is most likely significantly understated.  With headlines such as “Vigilantes and violence have migrants in South Africa scared for their lives” coinciding with the fieldwork period of the Census, it would be understandable that many people, especially foreigners, would be unlikely to open their doors to strangers, let alone admit to being a foreign national.

 Poor response rates

Census and surveys around the globe are suffering from a low response rate, and data scientists and statisticians are scrambling to find ways and means to gather data more accurately.  In all of our previous Censuses, the sample was drawn face to face, which in light of the issues listed above, was going to be challenging.  Luckily, this was the first digital census for our country, gathered not only face to face, but telephonically and could also be completed online.  Despite this, however, it has been estimated that the Census missed roughly 31% of the population.  This value is higher in some areas with roughly a third of people and households missed in the Western Cape.

Some key findings

Some other key findings of the 2022 Census:

• Average household size declined slightly between 2011 and 2022 to 3.5 persons per household.
• The median age of the population rose from 25 years in 2011 to 28 years.  For the white population it is 45 years old and for the black population it is at 27 years.
• Households with access to the internet increased to 79% in 2022 from 35% in 2011.
• We have a population of 62 027 503 people and 17.8-million households in South Africa, an increase from 51 770 560 people and  14-million households in 2011.
• Access to basic services has shown a mostly upward trend from 1996 to 2022, with increases across the country for access to flushing toilets, electricity, piped water and households whose refuse was removed at least once a week by a local authority/private service.  Although almost half of households in South Africa reported experiencing water interruptions for two or more consecutive days.
• The Western Cape has moved from the fifth largest province by  population size in 1996 to the third largest in 2022.
• The number of households who reside in informal dwellings has halved from 16.2% in 1996 to 8.1% in 2022.
• There has been a steady decline in the proportion of the white population, from 11% in 1996 to 7.3% in 2022. Interestingly, the white population, which currently stands at 4.5-million people is almost exactly where it was in the 1980 census (when it made up 18% of the population).

 

As soon as StatsSA releases the raw data, we will have it on the Eighty20 Data Portal and will be creating our own insights and data tools from the information.  Watch this space.

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